Stochastic dynamics and the predictability of big hits in online videos

The competition for the attention of users is a central element of the Internet. Crucial issues are the origin and predictability of big hits, the few items that capture a big portion of the total attention. We address these issues analyzing 10 million time series of videos' views from YouTube. We find that the average gain of views is linearly proportional to the number of views a video already has, in agreement with usual rich-get-richer mechanisms and Gibrat's law, but this fails to explain the prevalence of big hits. The reason is that the fluctuations around the average views are themselves heavy tailed. Based on these empirical observations, we propose a stochastic differential equation with L\'evy noise as a model of the dynamics of videos. We show how this model is substantially better in estimating the probability of an ordinary item becoming a big hit, which is considerably underestimated in the traditional proportional-growth models.Comment: Manuscript (8 pages and 5 figures

Extracting information from S-curves of language change

It is well accepted that adoption of innovations are described by S-curves (slow start, accelerating period, and slow end). In this paper, we analyze how much information on the dynamics of innovation spreading can be obtained from a quantitative description of S-curves. We focus on the adoption of linguistic innovations for which detailed databases of written texts from the last 200 years allow for an unprecedented statistical precision. Combining data analysis with simulations of simple models (e.g., the Bass dynamics on complex networks) we identify signatures of endogenous and exogenous factors in the S-curves of adoption. We propose a measure to quantify the strength of these factors and three different methods to estimate it from S-curves. We obtain cases in which the exogenous factors are dominant (in the adoption of German orthographic reforms and of one irregular verb) and cases in which endogenous factors are dominant (in the adoption of conventions for romanization of Russian names and in the regularization of most studied verbs). These results show that the shape of S-curve is not universal and contains information on the adoption mechanism. (published at "J. R. Soc. Interface, vol. 11, no. 101, (2014) 1044"; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2014.1044)Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, Supplementary Material is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.122178

Dementia in Latin America : paving the way towards a regional action plan

Regional challenges faced by Latin American and Caribbean countries (LACs) to fight dementia, such as heterogeneity, diversity, political instabilities, and socioeconomic disparities, can be addressed more effectively grounded in a collaborative setting based on the open exchange of knowledge. In this work, the Latin American and Caribbean Consortium on Dementia (LAC-CD) proposes an agenda for integration to deliver a Knowledge to Action Framework (KtAF). First, we summarize evidence-based strategies (epidemiology, genetics, biomarkers, clinical trials, nonpharmacological interventions, networking and translational research) and align them to current global strategies to translate regional knowledge into actions with transformative power. Then, by characterizing genetic isolates, admixture in populations, environmental factors, and barriers to effective interventions and mapping these to the above challenges, we provide the basic mosaics of knowledge that will pave the way towards a KtAF. We describe strategies supporting the knowledge creation stage that underpins the translational impact of KtAF